Work Package 3

Research Questions (provisional):

  1. What are the relevant baselines and their associated uncertainty in the observations/observationally-based products? (Both climate and non-climate.)
    1. How do we quantify it?
    2. How does it vary with temporal and spatial scales, e.g. macroclimates (province/nation scale) versus microclimates (within cities)?
  2. What are the multi-scale (time and space) atmospheric/land/ocean drivers, processes, process chains, and interactions that drive local scale climate variability and long-term climate change? Includes: external drivers (e.g. land use/cover change); meathods of identification / indexing
  3. What are the causal reasons for the range of projections from predictive tools and methods (e.g. GCMs, downscaling methods, and spatial disaggregation methods)?
    1. At the process-based level (multi-scale in time and space), including inter-process relationships.
    2. At the method level
    3. How do we use this understanding to form more defensible messages?
    4. How does this inform the disaggregation of sources of uncertainties
  4. How could climate scientists better analyze the spread of data to facilitate the co-production of useful climate information for the impacts/adaptation/vulnerability practitioners?  Within the specific context of the vulnerabilities of partner cities.